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Germany · 2026/27

Bundesliga predicted final table

10,000 simulations of the 225 remaining matches, using our Poisson model of each club's attack and defence at home and away.

#ClubPtsProj. Win the titleChampions LeagueRelegation play-offRelegated 123456789101112131415161718
1
Bayern München crestBayern München
 21 72
74%
99%
0%
0%
 7418521
2
Borussia Dortmund crestBorussia Dortmund
 21 64
14%
84%
0%
0%
 143323148421
3
SC Freiburg crestSC Freiburg
 19 61
7%
73%
0%
0%
 72224191274211
4
RB Leipzig crestRB Leipzig
 18 60
3%
69%
0%
0%
 3172524159421
5
Bayer Leverkusen crestBayer Leverkusen
 16 54
1%
27%
<1%
<1%
 149131716139643211
6
Werder Bremen crestWerder Bremen
 15 53
<1%
21%
<1%
<1%
 3711161514118643211
7
SV Elversberg crestSV Elversberg
 13 49
<1%
9%
1%
<1%
 135101213131110854321
8
VfB Stuttgart crestVfB Stuttgart
 12 49
<1%
7%
1%
1%
 12481113131210865321
9
FC Augsburg crestFC Augsburg
 9 46
<1%
4%
3%
2%
 1247911111110986532
10
1899 Hoffenheim crest1899 Hoffenheim
 12 45
<1%
2%
3%
1%
 113581011121211107531
11
FSV Mainz 05 crestFSV Mainz 05
 10 44
<1%
2%
5%
4%
 123578101111101097531
12
Eintracht Frankfurt crestEintracht Frankfurt
 12 44
0%
2%
4%
4%
 13478101112111086421
13
SC Paderborn 07 crestSC Paderborn 07
 10 40
0%
<1%
10%
9%
 12246810111313131063
14
Hamburger SV crestHamburger SV
 12 40
0%
<1%
10%
9%
 1124679111214131073
15
1. FC Köln crest1. FC Köln
 9 38
0%
<1%
15%
13%
 12246891214151594
16
FC Schalke 04 crestFC Schalke 04
 6 36
0%
<1%
19%
26%
 11235691216191610
17
Borussia Mönchengladbach crestBorussia Mönchengladbach
 4 30
0%
<1%
14%
65%
 112358142540
18
Union Berlin crestUnion Berlin
 7 31
0%
0%
15%
65%
 12359152837
Proj. = average final pointsRight-hand grid: % chance of finishing in each positionUpdated 17:15 UKMethodology

Probabilities describe what our model expects, not what will happen. Points deductions, injuries and transfers are not modelled. This is sports analysis, not betting advice.