Portugal · 2026/27

Primeira Liga predicted final table

10,000 simulations of the 208 remaining matches, using our Poisson model of each club's attack and defence at home and away.

#	Club	Pts	Proj.	Win the title	Top two	Relegation play-off	Relegated	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
1	FC Porto	33	82	83%	98%	0%	0%	83	15	1
2	Benfica	28	73	15%	82%	0%	0%	15	67	14	3	1
3	Sporting CP	24	64	1%	14%	0%	0%	1	12	46	22	10	4	2	1
4	Santa Clara	21	60	<1%	4%	0%	0%		4	23	31	20	11	6	3	1	1
5	Arouca	20	56	<1%	1%	0%	0%		1	9	20	24	19	12	8	4	2	1
6	Academico Viseu	20	53	0%	<1%	0%	0%			4	10	16	20	17	13	9	6	3	2	1
7	GIL Vicente	18	51	<1%	<1%	<1%	0%			2	7	13	18	19	15	11	7	4	3	1
8	SC Braga	17	49	0%	<1%	<1%	<1%			1	4	9	13	17	18	14	10	7	4	2	1
9	Alverca	12	44	0%	0%	1%	<1%				1	2	5	8	11	14	15	14	12	8	5	3	1
10	Famalicao	13	44	0%	<1%	1%	<1%				1	2	4	7	12	14	15	15	12	9	5	3	1
11	Moreirense	14	42	0%	0%	2%	1%					1	3	5	8	12	14	15	14	12	8	4	2	1
12	Vitória SC	9	40	0%	0%	4%	2%						1	3	5	8	11	14	16	15	12	8	4	2
13	Estrela	10	40	0%	0%	5%	2%						1	3	5	8	11	14	15	16	12	8	5	2
14	Nacional	10	36	0%	0%	12%	8%								1	2	5	7	11	16	20	17	12	6	2
15	Maritimo	8	33	0%	0%	18%	18%								1	1	2	5	7	11	17	21	18	12	5
16	Casa Pia	8	29	0%	0%	25%	40%										1	1	3	5	9	17	25	26	13
17	Rio Ave	7	29	0%	0%	23%	47%										1	1	2	4	8	15	23	29	18
18	Estoril	2	23	0%	0%	10%	82%													1	2	5	10	21	61

Proj. = average final pointsRight-hand grid: % chance of finishing in each positionUpdated 16:42 UKMethodology

Probabilities describe what our model expects, not what will happen. Points deductions, injuries and transfers are not modelled. This is sports analysis, not betting advice.