England · 2026/27

Premier League predicted final table

10,000 simulations of the 280 remaining matches, using our Poisson model of each club's attack and defence at home and away.

#	Club	Pts	Proj.	Win the title	Top four	Top seven	Relegated	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
1	Brighton	22	79	61%	99%	>99%	0%	61	31	6	1
2	Arsenal	27	76	34%	97%	>99%	0%	34	46	13	4	2	1
3	Manchester City	21	66	4%	68%	92%	0%	4	13	33	19	12	7	4	3	2	1	1
4	Liverpool	18	61	1%	38%	77%	<1%	1	4	15	19	16	13	10	8	5	4	3	2	1	1
5	Brentford	14	59	<1%	28%	70%	<1%		3	10	15	15	14	12	9	7	5	4	2	1	1	1
6	Chelsea	16	58	<1%	23%	63%	<1%		2	9	13	15	13	12	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	1
7	Bournemouth	15	56	<1%	15%	50%	<1%		1	5	9	11	12	12	12	10	8	6	5	4	2	2	1
8	Everton	16	55	<1%	12%	44%	1%		1	4	7	10	11	12	12	11	9	7	5	4	3	2	1	1
9	Leeds	14	55	<1%	10%	40%	1%			3	6	8	11	11	11	11	10	8	6	5	3	2	2	1
10	Aston Villa	13	50	<1%	3%	16%	5%			1	2	3	5	6	7	9	10	10	10	9	8	7	6	5	3	1	1
11	Hull City	11	49	0%	2%	14%	5%			1	1	2	4	5	7	9	10	10	10	9	9	8	6	4	3	2	1
12	Tottenham	12	48	<1%	2%	12%	6%				1	2	3	5	6	8	9	10	10	9	9	8	7	5	4	2	1
13	Newcastle	12	47	0%	1%	9%	9%				1	1	3	4	5	6	8	9	10	10	10	9	8	7	5	3	1
14	Ipswich	11	45	0%	<1%	5%	16%					1	2	2	3	4	6	8	9	10	10	11	10	9	9	6	2
15	Fulham	10	44	0%	<1%	4%	18%					1	1	2	2	4	5	7	8	9	10	11	11	10	9	6	3
16	Nottingham Forest	9	42	0%	<1%	2%	26%						1	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	10	11	11	12	11	10	5
17	Manchester United	8	42	0%	<1%	2%	29%							1	2	2	3	5	6	8	9	10	12	12	12	11	6
18	Coventry	9	39	0%	<1%	1%	50%									1	1	2	3	4	6	7	10	13	16	19	15
19	Sunderland	8	38	0%	<1%	<1%	53%									1	1	2	3	4	5	7	10	13	16	20	17
20	Crystal Palace	7	33	0%	0%	<1%	81%												1	1	2	3	4	7	12	22	48

Proj. = average final pointsRight-hand grid: % chance of finishing in each positionUpdated 14:03 UKMethodology

Probabilities describe what our model expects, not what will happen. Points deductions, injuries and transfers are not modelled. This is sports analysis, not betting advice.