France · 2026/27

Ligue 1 predicted final table

10,000 simulations of the 216 remaining matches, using our Poisson model of each club's attack and defence at home and away.

#	Club	Pts	Proj.	Win the title	Champions League	Relegation play-off	Relegated	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
1	Paris Saint Germain	23	66	54%	91%	0%	0%	54	21	10	6	4	2	1	1
2	Lille	21	61	20%	75%	0%	0%	20	25	18	12	9	6	4	3	2	1	1
3	Marseille	18	58	10%	56%	<1%	0%	10	16	17	13	11	10	7	6	4	3	2	1
4	Paris FC	20	57	8%	51%	0%	0%	8	13	15	15	12	10	8	7	4	3	2	1	1
5	Lyon	17	54	2%	30%	<1%	0%	2	7	9	11	13	12	12	10	8	7	4	3	2	1
6	Stade Brestois 29	15	53	2%	25%	<1%	<1%	2	5	8	10	11	11	11	11	9	8	6	5	3	1
7	Nice	17	53	2%	22%	<1%	<1%	2	4	7	9	10	11	11	11	10	9	7	5	3	1
8	Monaco	16	52	2%	21%	<1%	<1%	2	4	6	9	10	11	11	10	10	9	7	5	3	1	1
9	Rennes	16	49	<1%	9%	1%	<1%		1	3	4	6	7	9	10	11	12	11	11	7	3	1	1
10	Lens	13	48	<1%	7%	1%	<1%		1	2	4	5	6	8	9	11	12	12	12	9	5	2	1
11	Lorient	15	48	<1%	6%	1%	<1%		1	2	3	5	6	8	10	11	12	13	12	9	5	2	1
12	Toulouse	13	46	<1%	5%	1%	<1%		1	2	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	14	14	12	7	3	1
13	Strasbourg	10	43	<1%	1%	4%	2%				1	1	2	3	5	7	9	12	15	19	12	7	4	2
14	Le Mans	8	36	0%	<1%	16%	15%								1	1	2	4	6	12	21	21	16	11	4
15	Auxerre	10	35	0%	<1%	19%	18%									1	2	3	5	10	19	22	19	14	5
16	Angers	8	32	0%	<1%	22%	40%										1	1	2	5	11	17	22	25	15
17	Estac Troyes	8	31	0%	0%	24%	43%											1	2	4	10	16	24	26	18
18	Le Havre	2	25	0%	0%	11%	79%													1	3	6	11	22	57

Proj. = average final pointsRight-hand grid: % chance of finishing in each positionUpdated 15:26 UKMethodology

Probabilities describe what our model expects, not what will happen. Points deductions, injuries and transfers are not modelled. This is sports analysis, not betting advice.