Netherlands · 2026/27

Eredivisie predicted final table

10,000 simulations of the 198 remaining matches, using our Poisson model of each club's attack and defence at home and away.

#	Club	Pts	Proj.	Win the title	Top two	Relegation play-off	Relegated	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
1	PSV Eindhoven	26	71	49%	73%	0%	0%	49	25	13	8	3	1
2	Feyenoord	25	66	18%	41%	0%	0%	18	23	22	18	11	6	2	1
3	Twente	24	66	16%	39%	0%	0%	16	23	23	18	12	6	2
4	Ajax	25	66	14%	35%	0%	0%	14	20	23	21	12	6	2	1
5	Heerenveen	21	58	2%	6%	<1%	0%	2	4	9	14	23	22	14	7	3	1
6	AZ Alkmaar	23	58	2%	5%	<1%	0%	2	4	8	13	22	24	15	7	3	1	1
7	Fortuna Sittard	20	53	<1%	1%	<1%	0%		1	2	4	10	17	25	18	11	6	4	2	1
8	Groningen	15	48	<1%	<1%	1%	0%				1	3	8	14	20	18	13	9	6	3	2	1
9	Cambuur	15	46	<1%	<1%	1%	0%				1	2	5	10	17	18	16	12	8	5	3	2	1
10	GO Ahead Eagles	17	45	<1%	<1%	2%	<1%					1	3	8	13	16	17	15	11	7	5	3	1	1
11	NEC Nijmegen	14	43	0%	<1%	4%	<1%					1	2	5	10	14	16	15	13	9	7	4	3	1
12	Telstar	10	38	0%	0%	18%	1%							1	2	5	7	11	14	15	14	13	10	8	1
13	Sparta Rotterdam	12	38	0%	0%	19%	<1%							1	2	5	8	10	13	14	14	13	11	8
14	ADO Den Haag	9	35	0%	0%	31%	1%								1	2	5	7	10	13	15	15	16	15	1
15	PEC Zwolle	12	35	0%	0%	33%	1%								1	2	4	6	9	13	15	16	17	16	1
16	Excelsior	11	34	0%	0%	41%	1%								1	1	3	5	7	10	13	17	19	22	1
17	Utrecht	12	34	0%	0%	45%	2%								1	1	2	4	7	10	13	16	20	24	2
18	Willem II	3	18	0%	0%	6%	94%																1	5	94

Proj. = average final pointsRight-hand grid: % chance of finishing in each positionUpdated 16:35 UKMethodology

Probabilities describe what our model expects, not what will happen. Points deductions, injuries and transfers are not modelled. This is sports analysis, not betting advice.